More musings on Ukip

I've been thinking still more about the future political situation in England.  It's a puzzle wrapped in an enigma, but there's a big old combination lock attached to it, and if you listen carefully, you can hear the tumblers clicking.

There's been rumours that Ukip is the new Tory party.  The rumours could not be more wrong, simple as that.  If any party is dying, rather than the two-party system, it's Labour, the party of the coal-mining, may-I-help-you-Sir, ship-building set.  Or it's the Lib Dems.  "I don't give a fuck" seems to be an unpopular opinion to hold these days.  If anyone is the new Tory party, it's Ukip, while the Tory party itself seems to be the new Labour.

I don't deal in evidence; I deal in various degrees of truth, and the truth does not come from facts, figures, and cute little sound bites, although these things can prop up the truth.  The truth is that the Conservatives, in addition to being the party of the huntin' and shootin' set, was once also the party of Big Business and the Economy.  It is not so now.

Ever heard of Owen Paterson?  Probably you haven't.  He was the Minister for Energy before Cameron dropped his trousers and fucked him without even the benefit of lube, or the common courtesy of a reach around.  The reason he did this (not that Cameron needs a reason) is that Paterson told the truth.  There is no way in fucking Hell that Britain can meet its so-called "green" energy target by 2050.  No fucking way.  If it tries to do so, the lights will go out.  Simple as that.  Either try to meet your energy target, or succeed at keeping the lights on and the trains running.  It has fuck all to do with so-called climate change denialism (although being a skeptic doesn't make you a denialist), and it has all to do with the economy and reality in general.

The Conservative Party is trying like mad to get its voters back.  They are failing.  First, they attempted to gain them back through insults: if you vote Ukip, you must be either nuts or a racist.  Then, they attempted to gain them back through fear: if you vote Ukip, you are really voting Labour, and you could vote for Farage and wake up to find Millipede in front of Number Ten.  Neither works, of course.  In fact, neither is true, and especially the second one couldn't be more false.

Heywood is what's known in political newspeak as a safe seat.  In other words, Labour will always win.  They won this time around too... but with only a majority of 600 votes.  The runner-up was Ukip.  The Tories say that you could vote Ukip and end up with Labour... but in this case, if you voted Ukip, you'd get Ukip, but if you voted Tory you'd get Labour.

So of course David Cameron is shitting himself about this next by-election in Rochester.  The Ukip candidate is another Tory turncoat, a man by the name of Reckless.  He's well-loved in Rochester, and he will win the election unless the Tories do something.  If they don't, Cameron might as well turn in the keys to Number Ten, because if he doesn't, the keys will be taken away from him by force if necessary.

I thought about a pre-election pact being good for both Tory and Ukip.  I was wrong.  A pre-election pact would mean a loss of confidence in the Tory party, but even worse, it would mean a choice of only 650 candidates in total for both Tory and Ukip.  If no pact is made, there will be a full selection of 1300 candidates, and more choice is always a good thing.

The only thing that could save Cameron right now is amnesty for defectors.  Essentially, if he gave his blessing for the Tory party to split into two, with centrists staying with him and libertarians going off to fight on the same side but under Farage, the two chairmen would have an army twice the size and one which could successfully take on Labour at the next election.

The fact is that with this momentum Ukip could get over a hundred seats.  It's unlikely, but it's possible.  If support for the Conservatives falls by only half that amount, but so does support for Labour, there wouldn't really be a problem.  Even if Labour "wins" the next election, it's no guarantee that Labour could form a government. 

The reason is that, in a hung parliament, the "victor" isn't necessarily who wins the most seats, but who can count on the support of the most seats.  In a pinch, the Tories can count on Ukip and the Northern Irish unionist parties to back them up on most anything.  The Lib Dems will support the old coalition promises even if they don't form part of the next coalition.  Finally, the Tories might even get the SNP to back them up on matters involving Scotland (on matters not involving Scotland, the SNP generally abstain as a matter of principle).  On the other hand, Labour will not be able to get the support of Ukip even if pigs fly, and certainly not the Irish unionist or separatist parties. Therefore, in such a situation, Ukip will have the balance of power.

The only way this can happen, though, is if Farage and Cameron both field a full selection of 650 candidates each, and don't campaign against each other.  This way, a great government will still be achieved, and Labour won't have a chance.