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Sunday, October 12, 2014

More musings on Ukip

I've been thinking still more about the future political situation in England.  It's a puzzle wrapped in an enigma, but there's a big old combination lock attached to it, and if you listen carefully, you can hear the tumblers clicking.

There's been rumours that Ukip is the new Tory party.  The rumours could not be more wrong, simple as that.  If any party is dying, rather than the two-party system, it's Labour, the party of the coal-mining, may-I-help-you-Sir, ship-building set.  Or it's the Lib Dems.  "I don't give a fuck" seems to be an unpopular opinion to hold these days.  If anyone is the new Tory party, it's Ukip, while the Tory party itself seems to be the new Labour.

I don't deal in evidence; I deal in various degrees of truth, and the truth does not come from facts, figures, and cute little sound bites, although these things can prop up the truth.  The truth is that the Conservatives, in addition to being the party of the huntin' and shootin' set, was once also the party of Big Business and the Economy.  It is not so now.

Ever heard of Owen Paterson?  Probably you haven't.  He was the Minister for Energy before Cameron dropped his trousers and fucked him without even the benefit of lube, or the common courtesy of a reach around.  The reason he did this (not that Cameron needs a reason) is that Paterson told the truth.  There is no way in fucking Hell that Britain can meet its so-called "green" energy target by 2050.  No fucking way.  If it tries to do so, the lights will go out.  Simple as that.  Either try to meet your energy target, or succeed at keeping the lights on and the trains running.  It has fuck all to do with so-called climate change denialism (although being a skeptic doesn't make you a denialist), and it has all to do with the economy and reality in general.

The Conservative Party is trying like mad to get its voters back.  They are failing.  First, they attempted to gain them back through insults: if you vote Ukip, you must be either nuts or a racist.  Then, they attempted to gain them back through fear: if you vote Ukip, you are really voting Labour, and you could vote for Farage and wake up to find Millipede in front of Number Ten.  Neither works, of course.  In fact, neither is true, and especially the second one couldn't be more false.

Heywood is what's known in political newspeak as a safe seat.  In other words, Labour will always win.  They won this time around too... but with only a majority of 600 votes.  The runner-up was Ukip.  The Tories say that you could vote Ukip and end up with Labour... but in this case, if you voted Ukip, you'd get Ukip, but if you voted Tory you'd get Labour.

So of course David Cameron is shitting himself about this next by-election in Rochester.  The Ukip candidate is another Tory turncoat, a man by the name of Reckless.  He's well-loved in Rochester, and he will win the election unless the Tories do something.  If they don't, Cameron might as well turn in the keys to Number Ten, because if he doesn't, the keys will be taken away from him by force if necessary.

I thought about a pre-election pact being good for both Tory and Ukip.  I was wrong.  A pre-election pact would mean a loss of confidence in the Tory party, but even worse, it would mean a choice of only 650 candidates in total for both Tory and Ukip.  If no pact is made, there will be a full selection of 1300 candidates, and more choice is always a good thing.

The only thing that could save Cameron right now is amnesty for defectors.  Essentially, if he gave his blessing for the Tory party to split into two, with centrists staying with him and libertarians going off to fight on the same side but under Farage, the two chairmen would have an army twice the size and one which could successfully take on Labour at the next election.

The fact is that with this momentum Ukip could get over a hundred seats.  It's unlikely, but it's possible.  If support for the Conservatives falls by only half that amount, but so does support for Labour, there wouldn't really be a problem.  Even if Labour "wins" the next election, it's no guarantee that Labour could form a government. 

The reason is that, in a hung parliament, the "victor" isn't necessarily who wins the most seats, but who can count on the support of the most seats.  In a pinch, the Tories can count on Ukip and the Northern Irish unionist parties to back them up on most anything.  The Lib Dems will support the old coalition promises even if they don't form part of the next coalition.  Finally, the Tories might even get the SNP to back them up on matters involving Scotland (on matters not involving Scotland, the SNP generally abstain as a matter of principle).  On the other hand, Labour will not be able to get the support of Ukip even if pigs fly, and certainly not the Irish unionist or separatist parties. Therefore, in such a situation, Ukip will have the balance of power.

The only way this can happen, though, is if Farage and Cameron both field a full selection of 650 candidates each, and don't campaign against each other.  This way, a great government will still be achieved, and Labour won't have a chance.

Saturday, October 11, 2014

The rise of the United Kingdom Independence Party

The two-party system is dead.  It's been gasping its dying breath since about four years ago, when the UK was left without a majority government, but it is now officially, irrevocably, irreversibly, and indubitably dead.  Extincto.  Pining for the fjords.  It has spread its wings and joined the fucking choir invisible.
What leads me to say this with such piss and vinegar is that the United Kingdom Independence Party has won its first seat in parliament, and lost its second one by a red cunt hair.  The first one was simple enough: a Conservative member resigned and ran again with Ukip rather than the Conservatives.  The people of the seaside area called Clacton like him, rather than his party, so he got elected with no problem.  Conservative and Ukip are two halves of the same coin, so no surprise there.

More surprising (in fact, it couldn't be more surprising) is Ukip's near victory in an area that was solidly Labour.  Labour is the party for the blue-collar masses, those people with only a high-school education who work as miners and shopkeepers and McDonald's "do you want fries with that?" crew.  Its candidates were once also in this mould (Taffy Nye Bevan, I'm looking at you, ya sheep fuckin' bastard!); recently, though, the Labour gang are just as educated and just as polished as the Tory boys, and so it can also be called the party of one hundred per cent, industrial-strength, lab-grade hypocrisy.

The Labour member for Heywood, a suburb of Manchester, was an old charger of a man with a name more suited to a horse: Jim Dobbin.  Whoa, Dobbin, whoa.  He was a member of the blue-collar, dirty-hands, coal-mining class through his father, although Dobbin himself was educated (in medicine actually).  Well, just a few months ago, on a business trip to Poland, he kicked his legs up in the air, neighed for the last time, popped his horseshoes, and cantered across Rainbow Bridge, to lie in patient wait for his rider, the two-party system.

I don't know why Mancunians damn near unseated (or rather, unhorsed) Labour.  They've been in bed with them since Margaret Thatcher, may her great Name be magnified and sanctified, told them The Reason They Suck.  I mean, up there, the C-word (and I don't mean cunt) is worse than the F-word.  Ukip is, to be honest, more Tory than the Tories.  Not in the authoritarian, Fascist way that most people mean when they say far right, but very much classically liberal, or libertarian.  That's a Good Thing though, so I'm not going to complain.  Just think it's weird, that's all.

Anyway, the fact is that Ukip are the real conservatives.  D-Cam, our present Prime Minister, is like a damn pussy willow.  He bends wherever the wind blows and he has no opinions of his own.  Zip.  Zero.  Zilch.  On the other hand, Nigel Farage, well, now, there's a man who should be Prime Minister.  Opinionated, of the people, sanguine, and never to be seen without a pint of real British bitter in his left hand and a real British cigarette in his right.  So I wish them luck.
The problem is that there's no difference in British politics these days.  It used to be that the Tories were the party of the bourgeois, and Labour were the party of the proletarians.  Now, neither is either one or the other.  Both occupy the centre ground, and if there's anything I don't like, it's fence-sitters.  Real politics is back.  Thank you, Farage.

Even Jacob Rees-Mogg, the one Conservative Member of Parliament with some actual brains in his head, wants an electoral pact with Ukip.  I like, no, I love the Mogg.  He's basically a phlegmatic, old-fashioned equivalent to investment banker Farage.  The Mogg reminds me of Phileas Fogg in the Verne novel: quietly active, and atavistic to a fault.  The only problem is that neither D-Cam nor Farage can see that an electoral pact would be good for them both.  D-Cam can't see it for his hubris (he doesn't want to have to thank anyone) and Farage can't see it for his pride (better go at it alone than sell out).

I think that there's a Ukip minister hidden inside the Mogg, and he's rattling the bars of his cage trying to get out.  Rees-Mogg will join Ukip, of that I am certain---but could he please at least try and be a bit less vehement about staying with the Tories?  I mean, I know he's just trying to give the Whips the political equivalent of a hand job, but there's a limit to that.  Plus, there's no need to polish D-Cam's name while you try to extricate yourself from the Whips' control.

Of course, now that Ukip is a going concern, a whole new can of worms has just opened up. First of all, in a four-party system, which is what we have now (although I'd hesitate to call the Lib Dems a party---they should hold onto their arses, because they'll be blown out from under them), there are no majorities.  Someone will have to form a coalition with someone else.  And if Nigel Farage refuses to think with his brain, Labour might grab the reins and that wouldn't be good for neither the Tories nor Ukip.

Second, there needs to be an electoral pact, no matter what D-Cam or Farage say.  If there is no electoral pact, the only alternative is assured destruction for the British right.

Saturday, October 4, 2014

More thoughts on Ello

Now that I've been using Ello for a longer time, I can speak more to its strengths and faults.  For the unaware, Ello is a brand-new, invitation-only social network that is now making headlines across the world.  The cynic with a degree in psycho or socio will point out that its popularity is linked to fear of missing out, while the economist may claim that demand is linked to scarcity, but I disagree.  Vehemently.  Honestly, I couldn't give two-thirds of a rabbit's fart whether Ello is invitation-only or not.  I like it because of its underground ethos and its no-bullshit design.  There are other reasons why I like it, but those require a fair bit of explanation.

I do not like to talk about aspects of my mind or personality on here.  Ever.  But I think it's all right to say that I am an intensely verbal person.  I see the world not in pictures or in textures, but in words.  Anyone who knows me will tell you that I am something of a grammar fascist, and most definitely a spelling fascist.  I mean, I do like pictures, which is why I have an Instagram (no, you can't have it), but it's not a social thing for me, it's just where I put my family pictures.  I "suffer" from alphabetic synaesthesia.  Most of my creative projects involve words or letters in some way.

Social media wasn't built for me.  Whenever I try to write something with some actual fucking meaning on Fuckbook (no, you can't have that either), it comes out as two sentences and then "Read more" under that.  Fuck you, Facebook.  Fuckbook.  Instagram, well, that's purely a picture sharing site for me.  Pinterest?  What's Pinterest?  And Twatter, well, it's great for political discourse (bile and venom from Scottish nationalists not withstanding) but the 140 character limit is extremely stifling.  You try commenting on the exceedingly convoluted situation in Iraq and the Levant (that's Syria for you youngsters) in 140 characters or less.  Can't be done.  I assure you.

I think the whole thing started, rather unfortunately, with Google Plus.  In fact, Ello reminds me a lot of Google Plus in the early days.  Both platforms have had uniquely interesting early adopters.  Plus had many tech people, geeks, nerds of all shapes, sizes, colours, and creeds.  Ello has artists and designers.  The discussions on both are, or rather were, germane, interesting, and to the point.  The designs of both Plus in the early, closed beta days, and Ello today, subtly but noticeably encouraged this.  Unfortunately, when Plus opened to the public, the design was changed to something more busy and the one feature the early adopters desperately needed was not implemented.

I am speaking, of course, about threaded discussions.  When there were 20 comments on a thread, you could read the conversation and be enlightened by the sharing of ideas.  Now, however, there is an absolute goatfuck, because when there are 500 comments from some very intellectual people, the conversation takes so many twists and turns that you eventually say "fuck it" and facepalm.

That's just a minor problem though.  The far bigger piece of shit is some picture blogging site called Pinterest or something like that.  It's apparently like Instagram, but more for sharing what you like rather than your own personal pictures.  I don't know.  I don't use it, have never used it, and won't ever use it.  But Google Plus and Fuckbook took notice, and so Plus was "artfully" redesigned so that everybody's pictures choked up whatever little space was left for text.  Fuckbook created its "innovative" Timeline.  Makes me want to bang my head against my desk every fucking time I see it.

I honestly think the word "innovation" is being used today as a synonym for "shit".  Look at Windows 8.  It's full of innovations.  Facebook, same.  Myspace?  Anyone remember Myspace?  Also kept touting innovations.  Someone has to get a chainsaw and cut through all the innovation!

And then there's the bullshit "like" feature.  Google Plus calls it +1.  Twitter has Favourites.  Fuckbook has Likes.  Ello has none of these.  The closest you can get is by commenting "LIKE!" or the string :bread:.  I like this, because instead of the instant, dilaudid-like gratification that comes with mindlessly mashing the like button, you get a more lasting buzz by commenting and engaging in the discussion.  I would call it taking morphine tablets by mouth.  Not the instant, powerful high that injecting dilaudid creates, but more of a soft but lasting feeling.

The downsides all come because Ello is in its infancy.  It smells and hasn't yet learned how to walk properly, but it has the makings of a great adult within it.  The big problem is the grey text on white background.  White on black would be much, much better.  Another problem is the lack of a private messaging facility, but I think this will be sorted out in due course as well.  The crashiness on the home page has already been resolved.

There are some things I miss.  Notifications need to be on their own, separate page.  As of now they're on the main Friends page (rather than on Noise---for the non-Elloers, Noise is the secondary Friends page for people that you don't want to read all the time).  I'd much rather have them either on Noise, or on a separate notification page.  Also, if you're reading this, Ello team, please release an Android app.  Trying to read Ello on an Android tablet is fucking hell on wheels.

To be honest, I feel like mirroring this blog on a separate Ello account.  I mean, I have the invites, right?  I don't suppose it'll garner too many hits but one can only hope.  To Ello!

Anyway, I hope this thing becomes the new Facebook.  But I gotta take an innovation.